Pathogen Models

THERM

THERM is designed for evaluating process deviations for raw meat or poultry at temperatures between 50°F and 115°F (10°C to 46°C). Temperatures below 50°F (10°C) are converted to 50°F (10°C) when safety is checked. Appropriate use of information generated by THERM is the responsibility of the user. Based on research by the University of Wisconsin Center for Meat Process Validation.

• S.C. Ingham, et al. 2007. Predicting Pathogen Growth during Short-Term Temperature Abuse of Raw Pork, Beef, and Poultry Products: Use of an Isothermal-Based Predictive Tool. J. Food Protection 70:1445-1456.
  
  
• Click here to use THERM.
  

USDA Pathogen Modeling Program
Pathogen Modeling Program Version 7.0
Overview

• This predictive microbiology application was designed as a research and instructional tool for estimating the effects of multiple variables on the growth, inactivation or survival of food borne pathogens.
  
  
• Most of the models are based on extensive experimental data of microbial behavior in liquid microbiological media.
  
  
• There can be no guarantee that predicted values will match those that would occur in any specific food system.  Before they can be used in such a manner, the models should be validated by the user for each specific food of interest.

Link: http://www.arserrc.gov/mfs/PMP7_start.htm

Growth Models for:

• Aeromonas hydrophila, Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Shigella flexneri, Staphylococcus aureus, and Yersinia enterocolitica.  Three Salmonella typhimurium in Ground Chicken and BHI broth

Non-thermal survival models for:

• Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus.

Thermal inactivation models for:

• Clostridium botulinum, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes.

Gamma Irradiation models for:

• Salmonella typhimurium, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and "Normal" flora in meats.

Cooling/Growth models for:

• Clostridium botulinum and Clostridium perfringens in simulated meat gravy, Clostridium perfringens in Cured Beef and Cured Chicken.

Time-to-Toxigenesis model for:

• Clostridium botulinum on fish.

Time-to-Turbidity models for:

• Clostridium botulinum.

Excel-Based Pathogen Modeling Program

– not part of Pathogen Modeling Program

1. http://wyndmoor.arserrc.gov/MFS/IrradPredict/IrradPredict_Register.aspx
   You must have Microsoft Excel® installed on your computer to use the models. 
2. Thermal Inactivation of Salmonella spp. in Ground Beef- updated January 3, 2005
3. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 in raw sterile Ground Beef- updated November 30, 2005
4. Irradiation of E. coli, S. aureus, and Y. enterocolitica in Ground Meats- updated January 3, 2005
5. Growth of Listeria monocytogenes in Shrimp and Imitation Crab Meat Salad